New York Times Poll 2024. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was. 538’s galen druke and the new york times’s ruth igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.

The poll, from the new york times and siena college, has trump at 48 percent to 47 percent for harris among likely voters, within the poll’s margin of error. Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.